Travel Round Up

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A few weeks ago, China's "V-shaped" return from COVID-19 was topping the charts. So were festivities surrounding the Communist Party's 100th anniversary. Now, it is turmoil in Asian money markets as investors race to mark down the value of China Evergrande's assets. Case in point: the conglomerate's 2025 dollar bond traded at only 50 cents on the dollar last week. Worse for Xi, this story is no longer about one billionaire who got ahead of his skis. It is about the deep financial troubles festering below the surface that Beijing has been very skilled at disguising. Until now, with global investors asking a basic question: is China Evergrande too big to fail -- or too big to save? For Xi's inner circle, the problems Hui's overreach highlights are too big to ignore. Some suggest the risks emanating from China Evergrande are of the "black swan" variety that few saw coming. Rather, this is about "gray rhinos." Whereas Nassim Nicholas Taleb warned of unpredictable shocks with catastrophic consequences, the gray rhinos that Michelle Wucker popularized in her 2016 book "The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore," are in plain sight. In this case, those obvious dangers are the globally acquisitive mainland giants whose debt-fueled hubris is suddenly charging away from regulators. By 2019, Wang Jingwu, the then head of the People's Bank of China's financial stability department, found himself warning about a "high likelihood of financial risk" from this particular species. At the time, regulators seemed most concerned about Anbang Insurance Group, Dalian Wanda Group, Fosun Group, HNA Group and Zhejiang Luosen Neili. Back in 2019, remember, then-U. S. President Donald Trump's zero-sum policies toward trade and mergers and acquisitions was disastrous for mainland companies with sizable dollar-denominated debt. Yet China Evergrande, it turns out, was always the most obvious weak link in a financial system Xi hoped to sell as solid. And troubles are coming to a head, changing the tune in markets from Chinese revival to festering Chinese frailties. No billionaire is arguably a bigger bane to the existence of President Xi Jinping's Communist Party than China Evergrande founder Hui Ka Yan.   © Reuters The immediate pressure point is the $32 billion of commercial bills held by Evergrande's main onshore subsidiary, as of find more info December. A series of missed payments this year have markets on 24/7 Chinese default watch.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/China-Evergrande-s-troubles-are-wrecking-Xi-s-economic-story

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They are: Rainer Klement, a physicist who studies ketogenic diets in cancer treatment at the Leopoldina Hospital in Schweinfurt, Germany; Wouter Aukema, an independent data scientist in Hoenderloo, Netherlands; and first author Harald Walach, a clinical psychologist and science historian by training who until 30 June was a health researcher at Poznan University of Medical Sciences in Poland. (The university said in a statement that it severed its relationship with Walach on that date, adding: “We wish to emphasize most strongly that the [Vaccines] article does not express the views of our university.”) The three peer reviewers on the paper, two of them anonymous, did not offer any substantial criticism of the authors’ methodology in these brief reviews . One of them, Anne Ulrich, a chemist who directs the Institute of Biological Interfaces and is chair of biochemistry at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology in Germany, wrote that the authors’ analysis “is performed responsibly … and without methodological flaws … and the results were interpreted with the necessary caveats.” Ulrich reiterated that view in a 1 July email to Insider: “The analysis by Walach et al. was done in my opinion responsibly and without flaws,” she wrote. One of the anonymous reviewers wrote that the manuscript “is very important and should be published urgently,” offering almost no other comment. Damaris Critchlow, head of publication ethics for MDPI, wrote in an email to ScienceInsider that its academic editor, Ralph DiClemente, a health psychologist at New York University, made the decisions to send the article out for peer review and to publish it. "We are … consulting the Editor-in-Chief and Editorial Board to establish further ways to support our Academic Editors,” she wrote. Petousis-Harris says: “It’s very evident from their reviews that they don’t have any topic expertise. The authors don’t either. It’s a bit remiss when you don’t bring any of a large body [of expert vaccine safety scientists] into your study and manuscript review.” To draw their conclusions, the paper’s authors computed COVID-19 deaths prevented by vaccines by using data from a study of 1.2 million Israelis, half of whom received the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine and half of whom did not. They estimated that 16,000 people needed to be vaccinated to prevent one COVID-19 death—a measure that is problematic, critics say, because as a vaccine succeeds, the number of people that must be vaccinated to prevent a death grows ever-larger. To compute deaths “caused” by vaccine side effects, they used EU data on the number of vaccine doses delivered in the Netherlands and data from that country’s national database for adverse drug reaction reporting, which was more voluminous than registry data from other EU countries. The Netherlands Pharmacovigilance Center, called Lareb, is similar to the United States’s VAERS reporting system , in which anyone can file a report of an adverse event that occurs after vaccination; the existence of a report in the database does not prove a vaccine caused an adverse event or death. Such databases are not used to systematically assess vaccine risks, but to search for early signals of rare but real vaccine side effects, such as the clotting disorder associated with some COVID-19 vaccines, that can then be followed up with systematic study. The website of the Dutch registry clearly notes its reports do not imply causality. But the authors reported that, using it, they found “16 serious side effects per 100,000 vaccinations and the number of fatal side effects is at 4.11/100,000 vaccinations. For three deaths prevented by vaccination we have to accept two inflicted by vaccination.” On 25 June, the day after the paper’s publication, Lareb’s head of science and research, Eugène van Puijenbroek, sent an email to ’s editors, criticizing the paper and requesting a correction or retraction. “A reported event that occurred after vaccination is … not necessarily being caused by the vaccination, although our data was presented as being causally related by the authors,” van Puijenbroek wrote. “Suggesting all reports with a fatal outcome to be causally related is far from truth.” He also took the authors to task for stating in the paper that “the Dutch [registry] data, especially the fatal cases, were certified by medical specialists.” “This point is simply incorrect,” van Puijenbroek wrote.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/07/scientists-quit-journal-board-protesting-grossly-irresponsible-study-claiming-covid-19